January was an interesting month for the national long-haul broker truckload market. We saw rate outcomes that were measurably higher than our 2025H2 baselines, driven by supply-side dynamics and momentum carrying over from December.
For freight brokers, this data signals a critical moment. We are calling this the "First Quarter of a Four-Quarter Trucking Super Bowl." The plays you call now—specifically how you manage pricing and capacity between February and April—will likely determine your success for the remainder of the year.
Here is what the data from our January 2026 Truckload Market Intelligence Report tells us about the current state of the market.
The Inflation Numbers Are In
Rate inflation is back, and it is hitting specific equipment types harder than others. While flatbed rates showed a mild increase of 2.6% over the baseline (typical for winter months), the van and reefer markets told a different story.
- Reefer: Rates jumped 15.0% over the 2025H2 baseline and are up 12% year-over-year compared to January 2025.
- Van: Rates increased 11.8% over the baseline and 9.6% year-over-year.
This isn't just noise. These are significant deviations that impact how you should approach your spot and contract freight commitments.
The Squeeze on Margins
When buy rates rise this quickly, margins inevitably feel the squeeze. Our data shows that national median gross margins are currently hovering between 12% and 13%.
More concerning is the frequency of negative margin loads. Over December and January, we observed negative gross margins occurring in as many as one in every six to nine loads. That is a ratio of roughly 11% to 14% of weekly volume.
If your pricing strategy relies on outdated data or static indexes, you risk bidding on freight that looks profitable on paper but bleeds revenue in practice.
Regional Hotspots: Eyes on the Southwest
Market buy trends are elevated across all regions, but the Southwest is currently the outlier to watch. Reefer and van rates in this region have exceeded levels we haven't seen since before 2023.
While most regional markets are near or at 2023 rate levels, the Southwest’s performance suggests that specific geographic factors are amplifying the national inflation trend.
The Critical Window: February to April
Why do we call this the "First Quarter"? Because the game is just getting started.
Historically, the period from February to the end of April is the weakest time of the year for freight. We typically expect a relaxation in rates and fewer negative margin loads.
Analysts are watching closely to see if rates settle during this window. If they do not abate—if supply impacts like CDL reforms and weather continue to drive inflation—it could serve as an early indication of a systemic reset for the remainder of 2026 and into 2027.
Transact Confidently
Brokerages are the market. You feel these changes first because you live in the daily transactions. But feeling the change and quantifying it are two different things.
At Triumph, we utilize highly curated data and machine learning benchmarks to bring clarity to these dynamics. We don't just look at a simple index. We filter for long-haul transactions greater than 250 miles to ensure our data reflects the true over-the-road market.
The data suggests we are in a period of sustained inflation. The question is: Is your strategy built to handle it?
Read the full analysis in our January 2026 Truckload Market Intelligence Report.