Understanding the Spot-Contract Spread in Truckload Freight 

In the U.S. truckload market, freight pricing runs through two main channels: contract rates and spot rates. Contract rates are negotiated for specific lanes over set periods sometimes months, sometimes years, offering shippers predictable capacity and carriers consistent revenue. The length of these agreements signals shipper market outlook and risk appetite. 

Spot rates are real-time, transactional prices for immediate shipments, fluctuating with supply-demand balance. Shippers use them when contracts can’t cover a load or for urgent, infrequent lanes; carriers use them to fill backhauls or chase higher pay in tight markets. 
 

Analyzing the Spot-Contract Spread

Analyzing the spot–contract spread reveals market conditions: in loose markets, spot is typically cheaper; in tight markets, it can exceed contract levels. Shippers aim to keep most freight under lower contracts, carriers balance stability with spot opportunities, and brokers operate in both spaces, managing margin swings. Seasonality and freight type also shape this dynamic—reefer spikes during harvest, flatbed surges with construction or energy demand—making the spread a key indicator of truckload market health. 

The spot–contract spread measures the gap between spot market and contract rates for comparable truckload shipments, usually in dollars per mile and excluding fuel to focus on linehaul costs.  
 
A positive spread means spot is higher, signaling tight capacity and stronger carrier pricing power; a negative spread means contract is higher, indicating abundant capacity and a shipper-friendly market. Widening spreads amplify these dynamics, while a narrowing spread often marks a turning point—either cooling from a hot market or rebounding from a downturn. Although national averages give a broad market view, lane-level spreads can vary significantly, making the metric a useful but high-level barometer of truckload market conditions. 
 

1. Positive Spread (spot > contract): 

• Tight capacity → carriers’ market. 
• Higher tender rejections, shippers pay more on spot market. 
• Often leads to contract rate increases in next bid cycle. 

2. Negative Spread (spot < contract): 

• Loose capacity → shippers’ market.  
• Low rejection rates, easier truck access. 
• Often precedes contract rate reductions. 

3. Widening Spread: 

• Positive widening → severe capacity crunch. 
• Negative widening → freight recession or excess capacity. 

4. Narrowing Spread: 

• Signals market rebalancing or approaching inflection point. 
• Can result from spot rising, contract falling, or both. 

Analyzing the past 15 years

Over the past 15 years, the gap between spot and contract rates has swung wildly. In 2008–09, the Great Recession left too many trucks chasing too little freight, and spot rates fell far below contract. Fast forward to 2017–18 and again in 2020–21, and the tables turned – tight capacity sent spot soaring above contract, giving carriers the upper hand. Then in 2022–23, overcapacity and soft demand pushed spot way below contract, creating one of the longest shipper-friendly runs in memory. Each big swing followed a bigger story – from economic crashes to regulatory changes and pandemic whiplash – showing just how sensitive the spread is to market shocks. 

Current Conditions 

As of mid-August 2025, the freight market is still navigating the tail end of a prolonged downturn, with the spot-contract spread remaining negative. Even though we have seen a narrowing spread, the latest data still indicates a negative spread that shows in favor of shippers. The primary drivers behind this dynamic are twofold: a significant oversupply of trucking capacity that entered the market during the 2021-2022 boom, coupled with a normalization of consumer demand away from goods and back towards services. This imbalance has forced carriers to compete aggressively for spot loads at rates significantly below the higher contract rates negotiated in previous quarters, though the slow exit of carrier capacity is beginning to establish a floor for rates as the market slowly seeks a new equilibrium. 

• Van & Reefer: Spot rates were largely flat week-over-week, with only minor regional shifts. Both remain near early August levels, suggesting a holding pattern in overall market momentum. 
• Flatbed: Continued month-over-month softening (-1.8%) after early-summer highs, though still 1.5% above last year. Decline is aligned with seasonal slowdown in construction and manufacturing activity. 

Spot vs. Contract Convergence — Margin Pressure Continues 

• The gap between contract and spot rates narrowed again last week. This limits immediate margin upside for brokers unless there’s an unanticipated tightening in capacity.  
• Industry data continues to show limited carrier pricing power outside of isolated regional hot spots.  

Van 

• California Strength: Outbound CA rates remain elevated month-over-month, supported by late-summer produce harvests (Central Valley vegetables, berries), seasonal retail restocking, and some pre-tariff shipping. 
• Southeast Cooling: Florida and Georgia outbound van rates continued easing post-produce season.  

Flatbed 

• Post-peak seasonal cooling continues across the Southeast and Gulf Coast, despite ongoing infrastructure work. 
• Federal Reserve and industry data indicate softer volumes in key commodities (fabricated metals, machinery) contributing to downward rate pressure. 

Reefer 

• Stable week-over-week performance. 
• Florida and Georgia remain down following the end of produce peak season — Triumph data shows a 15.2% month-over-month decline, though still 3.1% higher than this time last year. 
• Midwest volumes in MI, WI, and OH are showing early signs of harvest-driven increases; rate impact likely to be more noticeable in the next 2–3 weeks.