Looking forward, normal seasonal events and isolated demand spikes are expected to keep rates flat in the current environment of mixed demand and capacity signals. Outside of that general forecast, there were no major surprises in trucking prices or capacity amid growing uncertainty from tariff policy and executive orders of the new administration in the first half of 2025. We have measured numerous, yet temporary, rate inflation episodes this year resulting from events such as weather, road checks, and regional produce seasonality. These were most notable in flatbed markets related to recent hurricane rebuilding efforts. While the economic outlook is highly uncertain, we do not expect any moderate increases in demand to challenge the existing capacity availability.
Margins trends below reflect the difference between buy-sell rates for the hundreds of brokers across the US who currently use Triumph Intelligence products. In addition, market rate percentages represent aggregate price fluctuations from a 2H 2024 baseline which are presented for dry van, reefer and flatbed as well. The following chart illustrates aggregate dry van broker margins across the Triumph Intelligence customer base. Since 2023, there has been consistent pressure on margins.
Aggregate US Spot Van Margins
The following chart illustrates benchmark price trends considering lane rates derived in 2H 2024 as the baseline. These trends offer benchmarks for lanes regardless of distance and are weighted by volume. Mild rate conditions persist since early 2023 with slight seasonal upticks. Temporary periods of inflation have occurred across all modes.
US Truckload Spot Trends
Current Conditions — 08.04.2025
Overall Trend: Spot market remains soft across all equipment types. Van and reefer rates are showing a slight decrease week over week, with flatbed rates continuing to slip amid post-summer construction slowdowns and softer industrial activity.
Contract vs Spot Convergence: The narrowing spread between contract and spot rates continues, signaling limited short-term upside for brokers unless capacity tightens unexpectedly.
Reefer Seasonality:
Southeast: Florida and Georgia have now fully exited peak season; reefer rates have fallen significantly from early July levels.
Midwest Watchlist: Volumes out of MI, WI, and OH are beginning to climb — expect reefer spot rates to react more by mid-August as harvest activity accelerates.
Flatbed Cooling: Declines in construction inputs and slowing housing starts have started to affect flatbed demand more broadly.
Southeast and Midwest flatbed markets are showing the most downward pressure.
For weekly trends, stay tuned to our blog.
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