The freight market started 2026 on a very different path, and February data confirms it. Reefer rates have jumped 20% since October 2025, with van rates up 17% over the same period. In the Midwest, rates have surged as much as 27% above late-2025 levels. Most notably, 19% of all reefer contract loads moved at negative gross margins in February.
These trends indicate a structural market shift. Triumph's February 2026 Truckload Market Intelligence Report helps freight professionals interpret and act confidently on these changes.
How Fast Are Rates Rising?
Reefer and van rates have been climbing 3.5–4% per month since October 2025, echoing the inflation pattern from the early COVID-19 freight surge. Between April 2020 and January 2022, reefer and van rates increased 69.6%, a remarkably consistent signal across lanes, shipments, and brokers. Triumph’s benchmark model applies this same methodology, calibrated to H2 2025 data, to track current rate deviations from a reliable baseline.
National Rate Trends by Equipment Type
All major equipment types are trending above H2 2025 baselines:
- Reefer: Up 19% vs. baseline, 22.6% year-over-year
- Van: Up 17% vs. baseline, 19.2% year-over-year
- Flatbed: Up 7.6% vs. baseline, 8% year-over-year
Seasonal weather and supply imbalances are driving these increases, with the Midwest seeing the most volatility.
The Midwest: A Hotspot for Rate Inflation
The Midwest shows the highest rate surges: van rates are up 27%, reefer rates 26%, and flatbed rates 18% above H2 2025 benchmarks. The South and Northeast also face sharp increases, while the Southwest remains relatively stable, with inflation under 5%. For brokers operating in high-volatility regions, this data highlights where adjustments may be needed to protect margins.
Impact on Brokerage Margins
Rate inflation is straining contract freight margins. In February, reefer contract margins recovered slightly to 11% but remain under pressure, with 19% of reefer contract loads moving at negative gross margins. Flatbed margins also dropped from 17% in January to 13-14% by the end of February.
While spot freight can benefit from inflation with proper benchmarking, fixed-price contracts don’t flex with rising rates. Proactive renegotiation and data-driven strategies are essential to avoid margin erosion.
Behind the Numbers: Triumph’s Machine Learning Benchmark
Triumph’s model uses machine learning with inputs such as transport type, origin-destination pair, linehaul and fuel costs, and distance. Calibrated to $50 billion in freight expenses, it provides a fixed, reliable reference point for measuring real-world price deviations nationally and by region. A six-month baseline ensures comprehensive benchmarks, even for less frequent lanes, offering consistent insights over time.
What Brokers Should Do Now
The February report shows 2026 is off to a fast-moving start. Brokers should revisit inflationary strategies to protect margins:
- Actively reallocate portfolios to protect margins and address areas under the greatest pressure
- Adapt shipper strategies to maintain service levels and meet evolving customer needs
- Review inflationary strategies from previous years to prepare for greater competition for available capacity
- Monitor the changing market environment and remain flexible as 2026 unfolds with new challenges and opportunities
The Big Picture
Brokers are on the front lines of market shifts, balancing rising costs while maintaining commitments to shippers. February’s data doesn’t predict how long this inflation cycle will last but provides critical insights into where and how rates are moving, offering a roadmap for pricing and negotiation strategies.
Download the February 2026 Truckload Market Intelligence Report to access the full breakdown of national and regional trends, margin data, and methodology.
Data and insights are based on sources believed to be accurate. Triumph's services are offered by TBK Bank, SSB, Member FDIC, doing business as Triumph.